Alcoa Inc. will be posting second quarter earnings on 07/08/09, and most analysts are expecting another quarterly loss for the company. They are kicking off the earnings season, and many believe Alcoa is a good bell weather of how the rest of the economy is doing. Others think it is just an indicator of the price of aluminum. One thing is certain, they are the first company to report earnings, and many investors are looking for which direction second quarter earnings will go.

Alcoa is expected to report a second quarter loss of $.32 per share, which is actually smaller than the first quarter loss of $.60 per share. Aluminum prices remain low, which is why Alcoa is expected to report another loss.

The stock hit a 52 week low of $4.98 in March, and has since rallied up to around $10 per share. Alcoa, or stock symbol AA closed at $9.86 just prior to the holiday weekend. Since analysts are expecting a smaller quarterly loss, will it be viewed as a positive and send the stock higher?

The only way to determine this is to use technical analysis and look at some charts of AA. On Thursday, July 02 2009, AA closed below the rising trendline off of the March lows. This is the first time Alcoa has broken and closed below this trendline since March. Alcoa will have to rally and break back above the trendline in order for the stock to continue higher. At this point, odds favor the stock retesting support at the $9 level